Quote from: Minor Miner on August 21, 2013, 03:22:38 PM

Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on August 20, 2013, 02:23:30 AM

Quote from: dhenson on August 20, 2013, 02:16:27 AM

Quote from: flibbr on August 20, 2013, 12:09:32 AM

Agree with all other comments here, this thing will never pay for itself, too late into the market and too over priced:
http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/294c1f0fab

The sad thing is, this is more likely:
http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/a/1edc4b3911
You lose 75% of your investment.

Yes difficulty reaching >1 trillion is highly likely.
I would point out that even with free hardware, $0.10 electricity and <1W per GH the exchange rate would need to be $42,860 per BTC. In other words miners would be paying $42,860 in electricity (or more if they have less efficient rigs) to mine one BTC.
Awesome analysis.

I do not understand why you bother with the sarcasm. It will be lost on them. No one is going to read the long string that you put up that had thoughtful analysis of where the network could go based on marginal costs and highlighting how the pre-order process effs up rational economic decision making. Stop wasting your typing. Let them use their website models to explain everything to themselves. A great question at HBS in first year finance for modeling "If you model a company growing at 6% per year and USA GDP is growing at 3%, how large that company become over time?"
Excel has allowed people with no understanding of compounding to come up with solutions that do not pass the most basic sanity checks.

Funny, my results lined up 2 months into the future within an error margin of just a few days.

Can I say that this will be true in 6 months? No, why? Because reality is showing an even steeper curve than I used in Excel. So my models will at best, a best case scenario.