Quote from: Minor Miner on August 21, 2013, 03:50:56 PM

Quote from: PuertoLibre on August 21, 2013, 03:36:46 PM

Funny, my results lined up 2 months into the future within an error margin of just a few days.
Can I say that this will be true in 6 months? No, why? Because reality is showing an even steeper curve than I used in Excel. So my models will at best, a best case scenario.

I am not interested in two months into the future. I am mostly interested in 2014 EOY. Think about where the HR can go before rational people stop buying. And where it can go because rational people do not know how many TH/s has been pre-ordered and will be delivered (nor when).
The one thing that changes the slope of the curve is the END OF PRE-ORDERS and the first company that starts shipping same day as ordered, changes a lot. Think about what I mean.

Alright, I'll say it.

Alot of people are going to lose their pre-order money.

Why?

Because these companies (almost all of them) are acting as if they aren't shipping out .4 Terrahash per device.

I think only 1 (ONE) company has even acknowledged publicly that they will incrementally lower their prices as market conditions worsen.

I think only 1 company has acknowledged that they have a plan to compensate buyers with chips if they can't make ROI. But only chips.

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I have yet to see any company acknowledge that they need to start work on large parallelism of their current designs. Not 1 so far....

You'll probably wonder why this matters. The reason why it matters is because most have already reached the lowest nm process they could possibly ever afford. And now, they only have two options. Make design changes (at the chip level) and re-charge all their customers for future chips at the same nm level.

Or
(the most likely IMO)

They will have to figure out a way to change their designed platforms and prices to adapt to massively parallel operation. A person only has so many plugs in their home. That is a limiting factor. There is also the problem of heat dissipation spread out over one room. There is a wall coming in the not so distant future where they are going to have to start thinking outside the box to create power efficiency.

If they don't their company is effectively dead.

If they aren't thinking about it before their first units come online, then you can pretty much expect that the company will fail at some point when they can't lower their prices due to base hardware costs and miners can't get a decent amount of profit they really desire in the next offerings.