Post
Topic
Board Pools (Altcoins)
Re: [ANN] profit switching auto-exchanging pool - middlecoin.com
by
Agrippa
on 21/08/2013, 17:06:40 UTC
Anytime I said "half a share" I am speaking in a probability sense, not a literal sense.

That's there problem. There is no "halfway" in the probability sense. That's exactly what the gambler's fallacy is all about. If you're throwing dice and trying to roll a six and the first three aren't six, it's incorrect to say "Well gee, it's a 1/6 chance and I've thrown it 3 times, so I must be halfway there!" The harsh reality is you've accomplished nothing. No amount of missed rolls bring you any closer to what you're after. You could roll one hundred non-sixes in a row and the 101st roll would still be a 1/6 chance; no more likely then the first roll.  A die is just a piece of wood or plastic, the way physics behaves on it remains the same.