Quote from: saintex on February 08, 2018, 11:36:39 PM

Quote from: gabriel0 on February 08, 2018, 09:03:18 PM

Quote from: Grog! on February 07, 2018, 11:12:45 PM

Quote from: -ck on February 07, 2018, 08:16:45 PM

Quote from: Grog! on February 07, 2018, 07:00:05 PM

Pool Hash rate = 7000 TH/s
128% probability to win a block in 1 month

Alas these are wrong. There is no such thing as 100% probability with mining which is a stochastic process. It keeps approaching 100% but never gets there.

Maybe better to say

Your Hash rate = 13 TH/s -> If you have neutral luck you will mine 1 block in 35,55 years
Pool Hash rate = 7000 TH/s -> Having neutral luck 1 block will be mined in 24 days (or 1.28 blocks in 1 month, even it is imposible to mine 0,28 blocks)

Definetively, 128% luck doesn't make any sense

128% luck would make sense. Just not 128% probability, right?

I think Luck and Probability mean exactly the same thing.
They allude to a notion but really don't mean much at the end of the day

If we stay at 7ph and the diff stays flat the odds are we need to make 128 blocks in 100 months.

If we did that we would have 100% of what we should have this 100% luck .

If we do 192 we would have really good luck since our return is far higher then normal.

If we do 64 we would have really bad luck since our return is far lower then normal.

Of course we do not stay at 7ph and diff does not stay flat which has nothing to do with the statement but causes difficulty in understanding projections into the future.