Quote from: dkincaid on February 09, 2018, 12:28:27 AM

Quote from: Yrth on February 08, 2018, 11:31:40 PM

Quote from: dkincaid on February 08, 2018, 07:06:40 PM

Quote from: kano on February 08, 2018, 07:34:35 AM

Time? Nope - the first block ever found on the pool was pretty slow coz the pool was tiny.
It was also lucky (less than 100%)

However, Diff% is what matters for rewards, and this one is 542% at the moment.

The 2 largest are there on the Web site Blocks page at the end of October - the largest being 928.788%

Now for that CDF related number

0.99557285335217 542.000% 1 in 225.9
i.e. we expect to average, over time, 1 in 225.9 blocks to be over 542%

Out of curiosity what is the actual number of blocks over 542% since the beginning of the pool? Including the block we're on now we have 4 out of the last 88 listed on the blocks page (or 1 in 22).

I only have the stats from when I first joined. But since block 141, we have had 10 blocks 500% or greater. That number doesn't include orphan blocks.

Thanks. That's pretty incredible. That's 10 out of about 2063 or 1 in 206.3. According to the tables Kano has posted before the CDF tells us that we should expect 1 in 148 over 500%. So at least going back to the pool's 141st block we are quite a bit better than that.

Well it's actually a lot simpler than that

The catch with looking at a single CDF line is that the data won't match exactly what's expected.
While we expect to average 1 in 225.9 blocks to be over 542% - it doesn't mean we'll have exactly one every 225.9 blocks.
Over a very large number of blocks (10's or 100's of thousands) you'd expect it to get close to 1 in 225.9

But if we note that the whole point of the CDF probabilities is adding up the area under the bell shaped curve and coming out with an long term expected average of 100%,
then you just need to check the longer term averages ... and yep they're around 100% - so that's all good