Quote from: zuerdemon on August 25, 2013, 08:40:52 PM

Quote from: lastbit on August 01, 2013, 08:18:57 AM

I've made some math.
If difficulty will continue to rise 20% each retarget from now on, I'll make 85BTC in 6 months. I'll never make the 102BTC I've paid Sad

.
What's your opinion?

I doubt it is possible for difficulty to keep rising 20% each retarget for 6 months, it must slow down and stop sometime, so Im optimistic

It will mean around x15 the actual hash rate. 28nm ASICs enter the scene, it's very possible.

It will never stop. It will reach an equilibrium between manufacturing costs, profit of the makers of equipment and an acceptable ROI interval for investors.
In bitcoin world for ROI we are now speaking of months, but in economy even a more than 5 years ROI makes sense sometimes. So here there's room for grow of hashing power.
Manufacturers will diminish their margins due to competition so another room for grow of hashing power.
And finally Moore's law is still valid. ~10nm is expected around 2017. Another room for grow of hashing power.
It will never stop in the next years. And there will be hundreds of millions of dollars worth of mining equipment.