Quote from: declan- on February 13, 2018, 02:26:38 PM

this is a crazy projection i have in mind, i don't know how accurate this theory will turnout to be, and please call me an idiot if you disagree with me, but i think i may have recognized a long-term pattern in the price of bitcoin.

this thought popped in my head when i was digging through the roots of cryptocurrency out of curiosity and boredom, and ever since i found this pattern i can't stop thinking about it. i'd love to hear the opinions of this from real crypto experts/aficionados.

as most of you know, the block reward currently stands at BTC12.5 and gets cut in half every 210,000 blocks. i always knew about this and didn't think much of it. that was until i came across this passage from an archive of bitcoin.org as it appeared in early 2009just weeks after the first block was minedwhich i believe was written by satoshi himself.

Quote from: https://web.archive.org/web/20090303195936/https://bitcoin.org

Total circulation will be 21,000,000 coins. It'll be distributed to network nodes when they make blocks, with the amount cut in half every 4 years.

first 4 years: 10,500,000 coins
next 4 years: 5,250,000 coins
next 4 years: 2,625,000 coins
next 4 years: 1,312,500 coins
etc...

i am not 100% sure if this was actually written by satoshi, but whether it was or wasn't, it still comes from a very credible source. what really boggled my mind was the fact that whoever wrote this didn't mention anything about the mining reward halving every 210,000 blocks, but instead roughly estimated it halving every 4 years. their prediction didn't seem to be too far off, considering the fact that the first halving occurred in the fall of 2012, and the second one occurring during the summer of 2016.

but this really made me think long and hard... could it be possible that the halving of the block reward impacts the price of bitcoin in significant ways? i mean when you fast forward 4 years after the blockchain was born, in 2013, it went from being as low as ~$14 to astonishingly rising as high as $1,100+ all within the same year. and fast forward another 4 years to 2017, we see another astonishing jump in the price, with lows being under $900 and highs surging past $19,000 in the same year.

based off all of this information, i honestly can't see the rest of 2018 being a good year for the crypto marketas much as i hate saying it, because it goes against everything i'm invested in. but that isn't going to stop me from hodling, because i think 2021 will be the year we finally get to see bitcoin pass $100,000.

please let me know your thoughts on this. i hope my prediction ends up being right, and if i'm wrong, then so be it. i'm confident about this theory enough to put my money where my mouth isunless one of you crypto geniuses talks me out of this crazy way of thinking.

This has been suggested multiple times before, so it's definitely not some crazy speculation.

And these cycles actually make sense, because it's not just psychological. Bitcoin rewards are actually being reduced, and it essentially means that price has to go up to compensate for this drop off in emission of bitcoin.

First half of 2018 could still be an okay period, since we're just recovering from the crash. But second half could see some negative growth in price and trading volume. Media interest may not be as much as it was before.

Come year 2020, though, I think there is a huge possibility that prices will rebound from a crypto winter, if it does happen.