I think his main critique is mainly pointed towards the recent decrease in share price. I don't think the decrease in share price is a failure of the pricing mechanism. It's rather the outcome of a liquidity crunch (more investment opportunities than capital, causing chronic undervaluation), combined with the deployment cycle of ASICMINER miner and their dividend policy.
I expect the share price to stabilize above 2 BTC/share. If it does not, it provides an incentive for previous owners to move back into the market.
I know you are an early investor and I presume a board member, so you have access to lots of information that most people don't have. But that is part of the problem with valuing AM as a run-of-the-mill investor. The market occasionally get short updates from Friedcat that give a general idea of where the company is going, without too many specifics.
Last week was a case in point. The dividend was low, so everyone dumped their shares in a panic. Then we were told some
BTC was held back for gen 2 chips. What we *don't* know is:
- how long has Friedcat been holding back dividends
- how much has he held back
- how much more does he need to pay for the next gen
- how much stock is still on hand
etc etc
When the market operates in a near-vacuum of information, the only things we can go on are:
- the dividend
- the estimates of hashrate
- estimates of hardware sales
- any news about new competitors
which is why the share price bobs around like a cork in the ocean, as I'm sure it will continue to do until something changes. I think that's now a bigger factor than the lack of capital compared to investment opportunities.
I know this is hard to believe, and then hard to concede, but I can honestly say that I have yet to learn any special info from being a board member and then traded on that. I'm the newest one, so maybe there were times in the past where that wasn't true for others, but I recall hearing similar sentiments from a board member back then too.
If anything, being in the thick of it simply makes Friedcat's publicly provided info and timelines more believable. When you see a delay, that's when we see it too. We don't have our fingers on Friedcat's pulse like some might like to imagine.
The fact is, we all know the share price has more to do with speculation, fickle sentiment and panic more than anything.
Furthermore, the amount of info coming out of AM to the public is not any worse than your average corporation. To be candid, the forum and its 24-hour F5 mashers distort reality with a hunger for info (read: trading signals). Some of you pretend like info is something that is vastly needed and lacking for some kind of transparency or relief, but mostly they just want to know if they should buy/sell in their short-term trading efforts.
All the info you need to make trade decisions is already out there. Anything that is uncertain after that, is simply that.
Hmm, I believe you, but it is curious since presumably the point of being a board member is to participate in board meetings, where there are usually frank discussions of delays/issues and upcoming business strategies. I wouldn't think that any of that information would be appropriate to disclose to ordinary shareholders, but I would have assumed that board members would know more about what's going on.