Quote from: Syke on August 28, 2013, 07:14:55 PM

Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on August 28, 2013, 06:52:19 PM

So it all depends on how fast the network hashrate will grow. However I agree for 2013 power isn't really that big of an issue even under the worst case scenario, but 2014 is a whole different story. The nominal numbers don't really matter. Power was important for GPUs and in time the ASIC powered network will use just as much power as the GPU powered one did (normalized for exchange rate). There is one critical difference though the difference in efficiency between the best and worst GPU rigs (excluding NVidia) is maybe 3x. Right now among ASIC devices in the field it is already 8x and if Cointerra meets their estimate it will be more like 12x once they ship. Normalized for process size Bitfury is the most efficient design, so if a Fury-28* shows linear improvement to efficiency it would be closer to 20x. That is huge and because of that I would say power efficiency is MORE important for ASICs.

Absolutely. When a Fury-28^tm comes along in 2014, we'll see the network reach a maturation point. These crazy performance charts we're watching grow now, will shift towards a Moore's law-like gradual improvement phase and mining will stabilize. Until then, it's the Wild Wild West of Bitcoin.

I think that applies only if you assume that the number of miners stays the same and they only upgrade equipement. If bitcoin takes off and we get into a whole new level of success, we could see the rate move up even faster as consecutively more numerous and better funded miners come along. If bitcoin really "works" it's not crazy to think of lots of people building office park sized mining rigs. It's like the 'oil rush' where people start drilling everywhere and everyone seems to be getting rich. There are still a lot of people to be brought into the fold yet. Eventually it will slow down, but I think that is a very very long way off.