Quote from: ben-abuya on June 29, 2011, 09:24:38 PM

Yeah, that last explanation made it all a lot clearer for me. I still have only a partial understanding, and a couple of questions:

1. Mining bitcoins is just a way for the system to get the 21 million bitcoins out into the world. What happens to the bonds and contingent claims when mining rewards go down to 25 and ultimately to 0?

This is the simplest system I can think of. Miners mine only one type of block. Coins in the blocks are evenly divided among 4 coin types. So a miner would get a block of 12.5 current coins, 12.5 maturity date 1 bonds (nearer in future), 12.5 maturity date 2 bonds, 12. 5 maturity date 3 bonds (farther in future). When maturity date 1 arrives, a new maturity date is introduced.

To make this last after mining stops, the txn fee system would need to be changes as well. For example, 1 current coin paid as a txn fee is converted into 0.25 current coins, 0.25 maturity date 1 bonds, 0.25 maturity date 2 bonds, 0.25 maturity date 3 bonds. Since current coins are more valuable, you would need to force this conversion on transaction processors. In this system, current coins would constantly be withdrawn from the system to issue bonds, the current coins would be reintroduced when the bonds mature.

Quote from: ben-abuya on June 29, 2011, 09:24:38 PM

2. I'm still not sure about the ultimate utility of bitcoin bonds vs bets on bitcoin's future value. The drawback of bets is that you have to put up full escrow at the start. But how do bitcoin bonds get around that? Somebody has to guarantee me that if I win the bet I get my full value in bitcoins. You can escrow me a bond worth that value and I'll be guaranteed to get it, but who's guaranteeing that the bond will increase to its face value? If it's built into the bitcoin system, it seems to me that would break the system, because there's no way we can know what a future bitcoin will be worth in current bitcoins, and if we program it in wrong, the system no longer represents reality.

The bitcoin vis bitcoin bond would not have a pegged exchange rate. You would just handle exchange using a system like bit-parking, the exchange rate is just a market price. I don't know what they will be worth either. The market has to figure it out.