Quote from: Rebelution on August 30, 2013, 04:24:36 AM

Quote from: dree12 on August 30, 2013, 03:33:40 AM

Quote from: Rebelution on August 30, 2013, 02:01:06 AM

Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on August 30, 2013, 01:13:04 AM

Quote from: TsuyokuNaritai on August 30, 2013, 12:58:45 AM

I know the 6hr average doesn't mean squat, but...

http://www.dpcapital.net/blockchain/?hours=1,2,3,4,5,6,7
http://blockchain.info/blocks/ASICMiner

no blocks AT ALL for the last six hours!?! Shocked

There is a ~3% chance of 0 blocks vs 3.6 blocks expected in 6 hours is due to luck.
There is a ~1% chance of 0 blocks vs 4.8 blocks expected in 8 hours is due to luck.
There is a ~0.2% chance of 0 blocks vs 6.0 blocks expected in 10 hours is due to luck.

Assumes AM is operating at 10% of network hashrate (well technically 10% of the hashrate required to sustain the current difficulty), if AM is lower then the chances would be higher.

Calculations to support these probabilities? They do not seem accurate to me.

Also there are several errors in your post. All results are "due to luck" whether they are much lower than the expected value, exactly the expected value or much greater than the expected value. The word "chances" should be "probabilities." And it doesn't make any sense to say "~3% chance of 0 blocks vs 3.6 blocks." I think you mean to say "~3% chance of 0 blocks when the expected number of blocks is 3.6."

Don't mean to be hard on you or anything. It's just that you write that as if you know what you talking about, but you clearly do not. So I don't want other readers to be misled by your post if it is completely inaccurate.

Do you understand what a distribution is?

Yes, do you know how to apply distributions to answer probability questions?

Okay genius, if they do not seem accurate why dont you give an "accurate" figure. I am sure you will be able to do so given how you are a self proclaimed expert in such matters.