Quote from: crumbs on August 30, 2013, 12:58:54 PM

Quote from: jmw74 on August 30, 2013, 12:46:57 PM

Quote from: crumbs on August 30, 2013, 12:32:16 PM

Quote from: Bitcoinorama on August 30, 2013, 11:50:16 AM

Quote from: bbxx on August 30, 2013, 11:26:51 AM

knc miners are not profitable. deal with it.

How? Prove it. Figures. You're spreading fud. The genesis block calc has so many more functions than the default most of the newbies in this forum are concentrating on (or those currently attempting to scare people).

For the default calculations to transpire over time the network would have to continuously double in a linear fashion time and time again. Impossible. Never going to happen.

Say 3,000 units are shipped in Oct, that would require 6,000 in November, the 12,000 in December, then 24,000 come Jan, 48,000 in February, 96,000 in March, 192,000 units delivered in April, 384,000 units in may, 768,000 units in June.

Can you honestly see this as even remotely realistic?!? It's ridiculous.

Knc, and whoever else are never going to manufacture and sell that many devices. Sure you can 'scale production' to a few thousand a month, and i've chosen 3,000 as an achievable figure, but the doubling, and doubling, and doubling. There's some seriously naive people in this forum.

I actually wrote to the Genesis Block and asked them to address this. I suggested they allow us to enter achievable figures of prouction for various manufacturers, and the dates by which those products are likely to be introduced to give more realistic scenarios, which they like, as it's the most sensible way to approach this, and they agreed, they like the idea.

In the mean time there's a constant increase per month option (MM) which can be used instead of the nutty (%) that is there by default. I may even write up a tutorial as people seem reluctant to play with the calc as it's quite useful if you know how to use it properly, which apparently a significant percentage of this forum can't. It's got to the point where it's just laughable and it's being used purposely to scare away small miners, which in turn will effect the distribution of the network. It's just beyond comprehension how the majority of people in this forum think a compounded increase in network harhrate is feasible over the long term!!

Certainly in this period of transition as GPU farms dies out and ASICs are introduced there are solid doubles of network over time, but if you think KnC, or Cointerra will be able to manufacture in excess of 5,000 units a month you're a complete idiot.

Oh, the innocent, unbridled optimism of the little ones! It melts my black little heart and microwaves it on "low" for 5 minutes.
Then i remember how many *other* ASIC companies are coming to our party, each with shitty table manners, to hoover up our delicious caek.

TL;DR: With all the pre-order schemes maturing just around the same time, mining will be unprofitable. For just about everyone. Because preorder.

If only it were as simple as that. If mining companies' prices are too high for anyone to see ROI, eventually that will result in no one ordering them. So then the difficulty levels off and it becomes profitable again. It's not a linear system, and it's much more difficult to predict profitability than you claim.

Do you understand what pre-order means?
Once you placed your pre-order*, you lose your choice to "not buy" if the price makes no sense. You either mine, or put your miner into a Hefty garbage bag & set it on the curb. If, by the time you receive your miner, it becomes blatantly obvious that said miner will never ROI, wat do?

*KNC pre-orders made through PayPal leave open a refund option, but that's not the case for most pre-orders -- those are locked in.

Huh? Your point now is that if we'll never get ROI then we'll... what? Never get ROI? Thanks for that brilliant tautology.

The question here is about odds of achieving ROI which I said is very difficult to predict. Do you want to address that or not?