Interesting hypothesis, this sounds plausible indeed. But gen2 is not expected before November, that would imply we will stay at 60TH/s until November/December, and hardware sells will need to be enormous to compensate the lack of mining dividends. 60TH/s in 2 months will be nothing, maybe 2%.
Agreed and maybe they have some excess capacity to expand marginally between now and then but I don't see AM hashrate going to say 120 TH/s using 130nm tech. That would mean doubling power to over a megawatt. One other factor is that "something" happened in the farm over the last month. Looking at the 3 day average (
http://asicminercharts.com/ ) on 8/23 the 3 day average rate peaked at 53 TH/s and then over the next 4 days declined to half that. Now say you are FC and you have 60 TH/s of hardware deployed but are running into problems getting 60 TH/s out of your 60 TH/s of hardware and another 10TH/s of boards arrive does it really make any sense to install them and possibly compound your problems. AM Blades somehow still sell very close to their expected net revenue so just sell the hardware (for roughly the same amount as you would get mining from them over the next couple months) while you can still get a good price.
Having run a 10KW GPU farm for over a year, if FriedCat can successfully manage 50x the power AND has a plan to more efficient tech, well that is worth more than a stable dividend in the long run. I think many of these other mining ops have no idea the complications that "real" power loads bring to the table. Going from 200W to 1K of mining gear is pretty simple just plug it in and go; going from 100KW to 500KW isn't quite the same thing. I would like to see the hashrate stabilize north of 50 TH/s for more than a week and some communication on the plan to migrate to 2nd gen.