Quote from: rizzman on September 02, 2013, 07:08:12 AM

Quote from: plasmoske on August 31, 2013, 04:39:38 AM

Quote from: BitCoinzzz on August 31, 2013, 04:37:43 AM

Wait your image shows that you will ROI by start of Jan? What the F are you on about then?

Dude, you are smoking fucking crack if you basing your assumptions off of difficulty 3.4 BILLION by March 2014... ASIC manufacturers would have to be selling these things like like toilet paper in order to reach that amount of difficulty and they simply are not going to be able to put that much hash power out quick enough to realize this difficulty within 6 months time.

Why?
A. Because at this point in the game if you didn't get in early enough to make seed capital for further investment, your probably not going to invest/reinvest. Less investors = less rigs = Less Difficulty

B. Guys just like you will continue to scoff at a 20% return (which by the way is an awesome return within 6 months by any measure). And is based off of what you will get worst case if your Genesis Block charts stand correct assuming you have a Jupiter by October. (Referencing your Image, and assuming a switch-off date of March 2013)

C. The equipment that is in use today, will not be in use in 6 months... This shit isn't like CPU's where you still have people rockin Pentium 4's, the life expectancy of a ASIC is directly related to their profitability which as difficulty rises profitability decreases. Which again brings us back to the toilet paper analogy, people would have to be replacing/buy new equipment every 6 months to keep up. and even then, they would be switching off their Avalon batch 3 dinosaurs at this point. I don't see this happening.

D.After all the BFL bullshit, Avalon cancelling chip orders, hashfast, cointerra, and all the other so-called 28nm developers soliciting for December, when the the lions share of the potential performance will be ate up, manufacturers will have to be really pushing the envelope on the tech, and this will cost money, definitely within the thousand of dollars. very few other than the rich, and die-hard supporters will be buying in at this point.

E. Among other endeavors I am a firearms dealer and let me tell you some of the dynamics and concerns about flooding the market with product are very real in this business and apply to ASICs. Manufacturers of firearms go to great lengths to ensure they stay profitable and too much product hitting the streets too fast most definitely causes devaluation in this market. Gun manufacturers want to continue charging ridiculous prices for the few pieces of product they make so they limit how much product hits the distributors per month to keep the scarcity high and thus the prices high. This is no different for ASIC Manufacturers. At some point when the dust settles, and the guys that saw an opportunity to make a quick buck shutdown, your going to see ASIC manufacturers throttling the supply, and I firmly believe this is already happening and will only get worse as difficulty rises. They don't want to give these things away, and you can bet your ass they're not going to do it without making a handsome profit.

This is all speculation, however that is the exact point plasmoske, and everyone else in the forum is making. There are lots of mechanics to this whole thing that we don't even know about, let alone can calculate and at the end of the day its a dice roll, you wanna play? Go big or go home. If your too afraid of losing your money, stick with the stock market, or better yet T-Bonds. Just don't expect to make a 20% return within 6 months.

Also, a business that could make a 20% profit for it's owner in it's first year trading could also lose it's owner his shirt..lose everything like many do every day. Not much risk of that with this ..we're pretty certain to get some return at least if we didn't invest money we don't have.