Quote from: coldguy on September 03, 2013, 06:29:03 AM

Quote from: Vycid on September 02, 2013, 09:36:33 AM

Quote from: supert on September 02, 2013, 09:31:29 AM

Quote from: VeeMiner on September 02, 2013, 09:28:52 AM

Quote from: bitsalame on September 02, 2013, 09:02:09 AM

I don't know where you got those numbers, but if that is an accurate schedule of Asicminer, we are pretty much fucked.
CoinTerra 2 PetaHashes by December, BitMine will bring 4 Petahashes by March, FastHash and KnCMiner who knows how much more.
CoinTerra and KnC are both already going full throttle using 28nm.

IF AsicMiner doesn't put their shit together bringing a couple of petahashes to the network, even 2 BTC per share will be overpriced.
There is no more reason to be holding back, being the most capitalized company in the bitcoin world, they should be leading this fierce competition.

Cointerra - doesn't have anything yet
BitMine - doesn't have anything yet
FastHash - doesn't have anything yet
KnCMiner - doesn't have anything yet

I don't know where is the informatino that CoinTerra and KnC are going full throttle using 28 nm, but I haven't seen proof of such a thing.

Asicminer has already experience with 130 nm chips and the new generation will be produced pretty soon afaik. You should walk before you start running.

Correct me if I'm wrong in anything

There is also Avalon, BitFury and BFL.

Cointerra founders claim they have previous experience in 28nm fab.

That is correct. Ravi Iyengar (CoinTerra lead) was a big shot at Samsung (CPU Lead Architect at Samsung Austin Research Center). The star power is even greater on CoinTerra's advisory board - their chairman, Naveed Sherwani, is also the chair of the Global Semiconductor Association Technical Steering Committee.

http://www.anandtech.com/show/7246/the-rush-to-bitcoin-asics-ravi-iyengar-launches-cointerra

http://arstechnica.com/business/2013/08/chip-veterans-form-new-startup-will-sell-high-end-bitcoin-miner-for-16000/

Even more important than the experience is the industry connections. Nothing gets done without knowing the right people.

There is no need to have so many big shots in bitcoin mining industry, which only increases the cost. Several smart heads can do the job pretty well.

Firedcat has proved himself and his teammates to be smart enough to do the job well. No other bureaucrats are needed.

Depends what "do the job well" means.

These guys are going straight for 28nm.

Quote from: VeeMiner on September 03, 2013, 06:31:39 AM

Quote from: Vycid on September 03, 2013, 04:29:46 AM

Anyone got a poisson distribution calculator that can tell me what the odds of 0 blocks in 6 hours at 50 TH is? Probably less than 5%?

http://www.asicminercharts.com/live/

I don't think you should sit behind your table and hit F5 and watch if there is a new block. The luck/variance is a very big factor. You should realize that the luck is only eliminated in a very long timeframe, that being 14 days+. I for example mine at Slush's pool (Which is usually around 10 percent of the whole network) and I have seen such streaks of bad luck - even 17 hours with no block found. Then there were five block found in 15 minutes. That's just the way it works. If the market is so irrational and bases the buy/sale of AM shares on the luck in last 6 hours, then that's another thing. It seems to me however that the weak hands were already shaken off and now we're stable around 2.5BTC. The share price will probably start rising again after the new chips are developed. I think there will be weeks now with pretty weak dividends and pretty low share prices... All of that said I don't plan on selling any of my shares

Yeah - I wasn't refreshing, just opened up that chart webpage and noticed there hadn't been anything in the past 7 hours (statistically significant at 95% confidence). Something showed up an hour afterward so it turned out to be a false alarm.