Quote from: tommyeyt on February 19, 2018, 06:26:41 PM

The crypto market is based around events that generate hype. Whenever something noteworthy happens a coin gets a big boost, else it just slowly rises or does nothing.

That said, there hasn't been a noteworthy event for monero recently, the next event will probably be the hardware wallets followed by open source wallets, bulletproof and lastly kovri.

The crypto market, like any other, is based on supply and demand. Price moves quickly when the balance between supply and demand changes quickly, and slowly when it does not. Fear and greed are two labile forces which play a significant role in supply and demand, but their lability makes their effects transient, while economic uses and emission rates are typically more gentle but always more persistent forces in determining the trajectory of clearing. PoW difficulty has an intermediate persistence/lability and is a feed back link between supply flow constraint and clearing price, which reinforces systemic momentum. PoS systems simpliciter lack this specific form of feedback, but master node systems add back a near analog. "Hype" plays a role in accelerating greed, while "FUD" does likewise for fear.

It is really a differential-algebraic system with complex component nodes. The dynamics of the system as a whole are not hard to model (except numerically, due to awful condition numbers) but some of the more complex component nodes have a lot of latent structure which needs to be elucidated in order to make the predictive value of such a model quantitatively and quantifiably useful. Specifically the allocations of holdings and preferences amongst market agents needs to be sufficiently defined.

The nice thing (and the awful thing) about models is that, like standards, there are so many too choose from.