Quote from: shunyata on February 19, 2018, 09:03:42 PM

Quote from: xxxx123abcxxxx on February 18, 2018, 11:26:45 PM

The current 9th weekend has already started with a 10% decline. Statistically, this would equate to a 77% chance of a bear market underway.

Calculated how?

I can't say for sure we're out of the bear market but the current trend is clearly up. Trade the trend till you are wrong then reassess. Shorting an uptrend just because an a,b,c 1,2,3 progression says so is just too risky for me. All the Elliot Wave people I've seen have been calling for us to go back to 5k since the start of the uptrend and getting wrecked the whole time. From what I've seen from you and others it appears to me that Elliot Wave is most accurate on weekly charts or longer and not as accurate on daily charts or shorter. Either that or it's not being applied correctly.

There's math traders, there's TA traders, there's fundamental traders, there's trend traders, there's gut traders. None of them are right all the time but if you can combine them properly hopefully you can be right more than 50% of the time and that's all you can really hope for. Risk management is where the profit is made in trading.

Trading masterluc's chart https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/ has still proven correct.

But thinking that extrapolating charts will make it isn't wise thing to think.
Why?
Because you must include volume. Do you know what volume must be to support 40K price, let alone 100K ?
Going from 10$ to 1000$, wasn't that hard when volume with 10$ was 100.000$, or maybe a million.
Just multiply it x30-x50, and it will make it there.
Now multiply price of current BTC price to volume (and it will require more, volume, because rising so exponentially it would make it selling pressure, even harder, because it's just unrealistic price for an asset, because still BTC is mostly used as a speculation vehicle)
50-100B$? Or more? And that's only for BTC. There would have to be like literally more volume than on the most of the stock exchanges, and that's just a really big and wishful thinking, especially seeing that when interest widen off - the volume is literally slummered, and is going down and down.
And a lot of volume is only bots trading, it really makes you think how much real activity is there.

BTW. - I wonder how mining would work - and would it consume energy not of a small state, at 100K, it would consume energy of a big country.
Inflating prices of GPUs also, and probably CPUs... Hell, you don't want to see it really, it would really messed up consumer electronics prices, badly.

But I can be wrong. Just makes you think it would actually drain volume from real stock exchanges into tokens world exchanging.
Wow, and it would be strange to see.