Quote from: sgbett on February 06, 2018, 12:54:45 PM

Quote from: junoreactor on February 06, 2018, 08:13:12 AM

Looks like there is a support (sort of) right now at $6,000, let's see if it lasts as long as the previous support at $7,500.
It has a little bit bounced back up to $6150 but this is exactly what happened few days ago.
What's strange is that everything is down, crypto currencies but also Wall Street?
Where's the money going right now? Gold?

Yes support at ~$6000! This is eerily the same as first bounce from MtGox (around 68% - fibonacci anyone Wink

). Which inevitably begs the question what what that Goxtrapolate to...

So here we have the gox collapse in broad strokes with the lower highs and lower lows to the bottom.

Assuming the initial sell-offs are correlated in magnitude, we can see that this market is playing out slower - expected as its bigger. Approx 2.8 times slower to be exact.

If we plug the % moves, and the duration (x2.83) into the current ATH we get a *very* simplistic picture of what would happen if this plays out like gox.

Note: I don't think it necessarily will, but I have been thinking $4100 for the absolute long term bottom was looking a bit optimistic considering how for this first move went.

Lets zoom in at that right hand goxtrapolation image a bit and add a little fibomagic...

0.382 Fib retrace at 11,171 (of the move from 19666 to 5920) provided some resistance but thats been broken through now.

In order for this move not to get ahead of itself, it might pull back at 12793, before continuing up to the 0.618 level at 14415.

I reckon that level will provide some significant resistance, as there is also some high volume action back on 22nd December in that range. If we get there I'll be exiting for a nice ~200% swing trade, as I grabbed some exposure via XBT Tracker one ETF at around the $6500 mark.

If the goxtrapolation is right then there could be some additional upside to the target of 16250, but I've no stomach for that! There is still plenty of hopium around that suggests its possible, still lots of chatter about new ATH's and how "that was the bottom" (have these people even seen a bottom before? - doesn't look like any I ever saw!). I suspect the next downswing will have a radical effect on their outlook!

Once the fear has set in the final dead cat bounce to 10k will be half hearted, and eventually we roll over into the agonising, grinding, true bottom discovery phase. Every last drop of speculation will be squeezed from the market. At which point we discover the true value of BTC based on fundamentals.