Quote from: datguywhowanders on June 30, 2011, 06:20:00 PM

Correlation is not causation

Don't bring empty phrases from Statistics 101.
And don't jump into conclusions, please read and interpret what I wrote.
I never said that google trends are causal for the increase of the prices, in fact, what I wrote it implies that we might never know the real cause of the increase of prices, and yet IF it is predictive it is useful.

Correlation is correlation, period.
And if the correlation is predictive, it doesn't matter if it causal or not.

What simple minded people see is A -> B
What most educated people see is: A <-> B
What I always consider is A <-> X <-> B
(Or even worse: Y <-> A <-> X <-> B)

The X-Y factor might be unknowable but what matters is the end result of B.
If X-Y is moderately constant, the correlation between A and B might seem constant, and sometimes X is too complex to understand or to be perceived.

Anyway, if whenever happens A later happens B, or viceversa, if whenever happens B later happens A, it doesn't matter if we know the real underlying causes of it for our purposes.
Whenever happens A I'll be ready for B.