Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on February 22, 2018, 11:56:36 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 22, 2018, 11:35:17 AM

Quote from: LFC_Bitcoin on February 22, 2018, 11:26:03 AM

Quote from: JayJuanGee on February 22, 2018, 11:23:10 AM

[edited out]

I think sub $10,000 is obviously possible. All the way down to $2,500 though? Near impossible for me buddy, too many people would be having a feast on coins valued at around $4000 - $5000.

I think that you and I are largely on the same page (or at least in a similar part of the chapter), if not based on close but slightly differing rational... I did edit my earlier post that you quoted and add a bit of language based on subsequent posts that I read after my initial response to you.

Whats your plan personally JJG?
I bought mainly between $400 - $600 back in 2014. Ive sold a few but HODL a pretty healthy stash in cold storage. I plan to get out 75% or so if/when we hit $50,000 or so. I didnt get into this game to have a normal house & lifestyle. I could have cashed everything out at $19,000 & made 35 x my total investment but I see this beast growing & I dont want to regret not getting rich.

There are quite a few guys (and gal) here that are likely sick of hearing my personal BTC related plan because it really does not change too much, even if I come out with some strong assertions regarding my anticipated market directions that I believe to be more likely than others.

I already concede that I could be wrong and on an ongoing basis, and I prepare and re-prepare for BTC prices in both directions.. it's an ongoing approach and tweaking of mine.

So, it seems to me that my ongoing presumption is very much similar to yours - however the only thing that I seem to be doing that is different from you is that I have an ongoing strategy to continue to sell BTC in small amounts all the way up (about 1% selling for every 10% price rise) and to continue to buy all the way down (similar amounts), and just like you I presume that the chances of UP (especially in the long run) are pretty decent, but I don't want to put all my eggs into that UP-scenario basket... and that is part of the rationale for continuing to sell BTC all the way up.. Buying on the way down is largely a way to attempt to make lemonade out of a kind of lemon set of circumstances... So sure, I don't really like it when BTC prices go down, but at the same time, it seems to be almost inevitable in BTClandia that we are going to get both UP and DOWN, and that seems to be one of the BIGGEST guarantees in bitcoin (aka volatility). WE can probably bank on volatility more than we can bank on either UP or DOWN - even if we presume that UP is a bit more likely than DOWN.

In other words: I probably would be too stressed with a BTC HODL only strategy, but certainly, I do not disagree with such buy and HODL strategy.

At any point, it is possible that BTC prices will stagnate - and for example, BTC prices never go above $10k again, so in some sense we have to prepare for that scenario too.. or even a worse scenario, that BTC prices go down to $1k and then hover between $1k and $3k and never go above $3k again... I personally believe that any below $20k scenarios in the next 5 years are the less likely scenarios, yet it still seems prudent to prepare for the possible happening of such negative scenarios (and we are in a better state of preparation if we are already 10x, 20x or 30x in profits).

Even if we believe that the above $20k in 5 years is the more likely scenario (even the more likely scenario is no where near inevitable and I only consider it as more likely rather than inevitable), we gotta be financially and psychologically prepared in the event that it does not happen. Currently, I consider that $50k in 5 years has a pretty decent chance of happening, maybe in the 30-40% arena, and $50k has raised that far into the state of higher probabilities based on our recent outrageously bullish outcome going way past expectations into the $20k range, when previously $5k was the top of likely bullish scenarios (3x to 5x greater than expected price performance). So $50k is possible in 5 years and even higher numbers are possible in that time frame or even shorter time frames, and surely we are sitting pretty even if our average price per BTC is in the $3k to $5k range, but of course, the lower our average cost per BTC, the more cushion we have for our level of comfort to feel better prepared psychologically and financially for a larger variety of scenarios.