Quote from: Vexual on September 07, 2013, 11:54:04 PM

I never accused you of repeating your arguments too many times.

Sorry, I'm getting people mixed up. I get that accusation almost daily.

Quote from: Vexual on September 07, 2013, 11:54:04 PM

You maybe successful with your trading, but often your logic and reasoning sounds flawed to me.

If you'd like to drill down to what you think is flawed on a point by point basis, I'd be more than happy to discuss it. I am not always right, and the means by which I arrive at my worldview is by correcting the things which do not stand up to rational inspection.

However, the vetting process for my stance on AM has been thorough and I have been confident enough for some time now to initiate and hold highly leveraged market positions.

Quote from: Vexual on September 07, 2013, 11:54:04 PM

You base your decisions on market data, yet disagree with the market.

I'm not sure what you mean by this, exactly. I use data to synthesize my outlook. The core of value investing necessarily stems from a contrarian outlook. Many of history's most successful investors were value investors and made a habit of betting against the market when the evidence supported doing so.

That doesn't mean that I ignore market data. For example - I have briefly discussed my position on ANV (NYSE) to demonstrate the concept. Profits for ANV can be estimated via (total average operational costs per ounce - market price per ounce) * ounces mined. ANV releases both the throughput and operational costs in quarterly statements.

If we use the premiums on long-dated gold options to judge the probabilities of movements in the underlying commodity, then estimate the fair value of the security (ANV) from a reasonable P/E, we can come up with an expectation value for the fair value given all possible price moves in gold.

So I can use market data and still disagree with the market. I believe ANV is undervalued and AM is overvalued.

Quote from: Vexual on September 07, 2013, 11:54:04 PM

I never accused you of repeating your arguments too many times.
You maybe successful with your trading, but often your logic and reasoning sounds flawed to me.
You base your decisions on market data, yet disagree with the market.
You say friedcat doesn't give enough information to shareholders, yet claim to be making informed decisions.

I think you're in a bullshit loop like the hitchhiker from There's Something About Mary

I can make informed decisions based on the size of the market, and reasonable estimations of long-term profit margins and AM's relative share. Also, the very fact that Friedcat is not transparent contributes to my informed decisions.

I admit that the precision of my estimates is not particularly high without the financial statements, but I still think the odds are against the AM longs right now, and will continue to be clearly against until 1.5 BTC/share (at 1.5 BTC/share I will convert to a neutral outlook pending Gen 2 news). When we were at 4 BTC/share, I was almost certain of AM's overvaluation.