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Re: [EDU] Provably fair and how it can be exploited by casino owners against you.
by
kingsportzrulz
on 08/09/2013, 11:47:09 UTC
... You have to understand that you can easily lose 50% 20 times in a row. You have to understand that you can lose 111 times in a row on 10%. You have to understand that you can lose 8 times in a row on 90%.

Because I've personally seen it all happen. And I personally verified each and every bet as fair. And it does not matter what the amount of the bet is, because the systems all of these bitcoin dice sites implement does not account for the size of the bet.

... Just bet a billion times on 98% chance to win and you will almost surely see 5 or 6 losses in a row. It can happen within the first 100 rolls.

While I'm at it, I just lost 6 times in a row on 87.7779% about 4 or 5 weeks ago....

Dabs, thank you firstly for contributing to this discussion in a professional manner, and providing constructive and meaningful input. I can respect a person when they present in such a manner. Given the topic, it's all too easy to bring these discussions down to toilet level, with name calling, throwing terms like 'sour grapes', 'sore loser' etc etc around. So i respect what you say.

I have over 2 decades of gambling experience, and i have studied quantitative analysis at college. Further, placing a $1,000 bet these days unfortunately does not mean the same to me as it once did. But whatever, you lose some, you win some. Know what you are getting involved in, and take the outcomes like a man.

BUT, if you have vast experience in anything, you know when something is not right. This is what i am saying, from my personal experience, past and present, i believe a particular site is not 'right'.

I agree with what you said above. But also remember that coin has too sides. All of those loses you mention are statistically possible, but the same goes for such a run on wins. It is possible to win 6 times in a row on 12%. But on all these threads, all the bitcoin sites etc, and with all the chat and people watching the play going on, i personally haven't yet heard of any stories of such 'magic' run of wins.

Why are so many people coming out saying 'man, a lot of bad streaks on such a such site', or 'i know it is possible to go on a bad run, but 10 loses in a row, 3 times, this quickly, wtf' etc etc.

Some sites have only been running a 'minute' statistically speaking. And already have claimed victim after victim with 'statistically acceptable variance' blah blah blah. Such runs (good or bad) are possible, but very RARE, like 1 time per 100,000+. For such runs, and coincidentally all to be bad runs for the players, to happen within the first 'minute', well come on, are those site owners REALLY THAT LUCKY? and us players that unlucky?

I'm a realist, and I personally believe something is not right with some sites.