KNC Sept/Oct 500TH/s is way too low, because September are day1+2 [1,speculation] only and ~800 orders [2].
Most of the orders contain at least one Jupiter, few orders contain one Saturn which has not upgraded meanwhile [speculation].
October orders are shipped on 11 business days, so lets assume another 11*(800/2)= 4400 orders (containing Mercuries as well).
According to knc-staff Jupiter will have at least 500GH/s [3].
So let's calculate with 0,5TH/s as an average per order: (800 + 4400) * 0,5TH/s =
2.600TH/sMaybe even more since there are orders with 6,8,10 Jupiters [unverified]. Cloudhashing wanted to buy from knc as well [4], don't know whether they actually pre-ordered. If so I guess it's one huge order.
Those days knc is shipping ppl will think the network-graph must be broken as it is showing hashrate increase at an angle of 88° or so until October 15th when last ones are shipped [5]. At least it will not be comparable to anything we saw before during this time x_X
[1]
https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-32 "Finally we wish to confirm that yes we are still on track for our delivery towards the end of September."
[2]
https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-20 "The number was 890 but has dropped a little as not all bank transfers arrived in time."
[3]
http://forum.kncminer.com/forum/main-category/hardware/107-psu-recommendation-jupiter-the-largest-planet?p=1050#post1050 "According to our engineers an 850W, 80+ Gold certified PSU should be enough for a Jupiter running at the expected speed of 500 GH/s."
[4]
https://cloudhashing.com/blog/13-blog/press/65-bitcoin-mining-as-a-service-maas "He (Cloudhashings founder, Emmanuel Abiodun) is also in negotiation with KNC, which he says is pledging September delivery for its own ASIC products."
[5]
https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-33 " All current paid orders will be shipped no later than October 15th.
All new sales will reflect our November price point of;"
*edits:
-added [speculation] and [unverified]
-added an additional link
-made it more readable
Very good. Here is another link (distribution of 141 orders) https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=249065.0. if you want to add it to your cites. It works out to 495 GH/s per order which I will round up to 500 GH/s. I don't think 11 business days in Oct means they need to ship 400 units * 11 days = 4,400 unit backlog. I think KNC is smart enough to give them some slack and then never "ran out" of Oct orders they simply closed it and pushed the delivery of new units back to Nov when the price dropped. I think this was for two reasons a) to not have their customers ask for refund and reorder (if you are late order paying full price why not cancel and maybe get a unit a day or two later at reduced price) and b) to avoid "burning" their customer loyalty. So I think assuming full queue 11 days * 400 is probably an overshoot still I do like the math and analysis. I will discount it slightly to 4,000 orders today (sept/oct) with average of 0.5 TH/s which gives us 2,000 TH/s. I have a high confidence it will be at least that much. It may be more but I will update it to that for now.