It is also worth pointing out that 20 runs is statistical noise.
I set up a contigency table, played with the numbers and ran some chi-squared tests on them. I calculated for p-value of 0.05 (This means that the results we achieve would be achieved by random chance 5% of the time i.e. we are 95% confident the script is working as advertised. This is a common minimum standard required across most fields of scientific research.)
Even if the script could completely eliminate the house edge (which it can't), we would need around 6000 runs to obtain a p-value of <0.05. If the script could half the house edge from 1% to 0.5%, we would need around 23000 runs to obtain a p-value of <0.05.
Excellent point, o_e_l_e_o. Curiously, 23000 runs is well within the realm of affordability for an experiment with the level of wagers Alia proposed:
1 bit will be wagered on Bustabit and 3 bits will be wagered on Cryptobust.
$ bc -l
4 * 23000 / 1000000
.09200000000000000000
Surely, to prove her point, Alia could put up <0.1 BTC for 23000 runs on each site, at the wagers she stated. Moreover, to avoid any doubt, the experiment should be performed by a trustworthy person who PGP-signs an NDA agreeing not to disclose the script
unless either it fails to perform as advertised, or it is found to contain any illegal material. Skeptical investigators experiments always take such reasonable precautions.
I began writing a longer post about this, even thinking to offer to put up 0.0092 BTC (10% of the total) for this experiment. But then I realized, that would only prove with confidence of p < 0.05 that the script could
halve the house edge. That is: It would prove with >95% certainty that the script could cut your long-term gambling losses in half. What about
profit?Say, how many runs would be required to obtain p < 0.05 confidence that the script can generate a 5% profit across many runs? That is a modest ROI, at the low end of Alias claims.Please do not insult Alia by suggesting that she prove only that the script can cut losses in half! Who would want a winning script which only loses less?