Still in short position?
Yes...
BTC/USD (BITFINEX)
OPEN: 10900
CLOSE: 4257 (& open-ended)
STOP: 11788
RISK: 8.15%
REWARD: 60%
The risk/reward ratio appears to justify the trade, but I think that's because of the inflated reward. What likelihood do you actually put on reaching the $4,000s?
The 2/26 breakout candle on the 4h was simply too strong to justify continually shorting without confirmation. Especially while margin shorts are standing near ATHs and have risen by ~20% in the last month. The perma-shorters have got big balls, but I don't know how long they'll keep their shirts. This is coming from someone who expected a dip to the $8,000s two weeks ago....
....and had to re-assess. Trading is all about reaction after all (not prediction)!
To be honest, though, I'm rooting for your short here, as I didn't re-buy 100% of my position yet.
Still expecting the bear market to resume with an initial target of 4257 (Bitfinex), which would be the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire Bitcoin market.
10,000 is a strong psychological level, so would expect price action to linger ±1000 points either side of it for a while to confuse both the bulls & bears. However, the wider crypto market provides the clues and is favoring the bears.
Would reassess the bear market analysis if +13,000 is taken out to the upside.
You got some balls to not have closed your short here if you ain't scalping, it's obvious the bull run is not about to end, but gaining momentum and strength for the last few days. They gonna squeeze the shorts, just like they gonna catch joe fomo at the top again.
If we look at fractals from '11 and '14 (blow off top), the bull trap happens around 13k, not before. This is "normal" phase before the crash to 8k -> 4.6k -> 3k -> 2k and I wouldn't be surprised 3 digits to $1k in accumulation phase and I wouldn't be even surprised if we continue the bubble to 50k before crashing, although the latter possibility is < 10% (given the emotional state of a hurt pleb (and yes, everyone in the world already knows about bitcoin, you're late and a pleb if you don't know, because you're one of them), lack of volume conviction and the major bad news that still is en route).
Nevertheless, the cycles get faster after each bubble, so end of 2018 we can already be at 10k or even 20k. A bear market for 1-2 year ain't bad.
Nevertheless, your fractals are on spot, around same trajectory as me, but this short at mid level can cost you some $$.
So basically for you first move we are going to fake breakout now till 13K, and then go to 8-6-4.6 and 3K?