Quote from: Anenome5 on September 15, 2013, 06:16:13 PM

Quote from: crumbs on September 15, 2013, 05:02:57 PM

Quote from: Anenome5 on September 15, 2013, 04:17:52 PM

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Now there's several good reasons why the difficulty will -not- get to 7 billion with the price of bitcoin at $125. There's ROI to think about, the cost of hardware must be amortized in, which means the difficulty is actually very likely to level off at more around 2 billion or less.
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You're ignoring that:

1. Miners pre-order their gear months in advance, so the gear ordered today is *locked in* -- it will mine even if it makes pennies over power cost.

I'm not ignoring that. I assume people have pulled back on their mining equipment orders in the last months as diff skyrocketed. If I were looking to buy today, I wouldn't.

It's hard to agree with your logic when you yourself, faced with a decision to pull back your order, chose not to. Because you think that *others* (who are more rational?) would Sad

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Quote from: crumbs on September 15, 2013, 05:02:57 PM

2. People are bad at math -- they will continue to come up with "but bitcoin will be worth moar" arguments & mine at a loss.

I don't think that's as widespread as you think. People with real money tend to do their due diligence, or else are quickly stripped of capital.

They're being "stripped of capital" even as we speak. We're hopelessly temporal, even parting of fools and their money takes time.

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Quote from: crumbs on September 15, 2013, 05:02:57 PM

3. Even when people are given a chance at a refund (the case with KNC?), they don't use it -- even when all evidence tells them to do so. Some yet unnamed gambler's fallacy, i guess.
4. People bought & are still buying USB miners -- case in point.

When the cost is a few $10 bills, no one cares that much if they make money. I look at that as the chewing gum of ASICs. You never need a reason to chew gum. But a Jupiter is a 6 course meal.

A Jupiter may turn out to be a 6-course meal, i'm just not sure for whom.

Nevertheless, you haven't responded to the main issue -- why do you think the people who are willing to send money to internet strangers are going to change their ways & pull back their orders, even though most ASIC companies make it plain that they'll point fingers and laugh if you ask for a refund?