Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
So, do the math. Or look here:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=235763.msg3134886#msg3134886
Ask yourself this - for a company that went up 5000% from the IPO, would you consider a fair value overshoot of a couple hundred percent unreasonable? (Don't forget that USD/BTC is up 10x from the IPO too).
I'm sorry if you lost money, but if you do not base your stock trades on facts, math and logic, you are a gambler, not an investor.
At your target price of 1.5 BTC based on projected net profit 10 years from now, 2 BTC is a good deal considering the dividend payments which will quickly add up to greater than 2 BTC even if the price goes down to your target.
You understand the dividend payments are the profits that don't get reinvested, and thus the 10 year dividends cannot exceed the 10 year profit?
The point of that link you quoted is that the 10 year profits are unlikely to exceed 1.5 BTC.
But they are calculated mostly with profit margin 20%, but now it is more likely 300% for gen1, I guess it's gonna be 2000% for gen2 (at start)
Not sure that you understood the reasoning in the link. This 20% is an assumption on the percentage of the network hashrate, which overall, by definition will never exceed 100%. It won't be ever less than 100% neither, btw.
At least that's something we can be sure about.Well, there's actually two numbers - one is the percentage of network hashrate AM will obtain. I assumed 20% even though FC said that the target is 10% (he tends to over-deliver).
The second is the profit margin - for every bitcoin mined, how many bitcoins (or their equivalent) were spent on hardware, electricity, labor, rent, etc? Right now AM is making much more revenue than their costs, so their profit margins are large, near 100%. These margins will drop rapidly going forward. You only need to look at the competition to see this - if FC is currently paying $1.50/GH, and Cointerra is releasing a $3.00/GH product, his margins will drop below 50% as soon as most of the competition is using hardware at $3.00/GH.
This ignores the inevitable price wars that will soon occur - FC will slash his hardware sale prices in response, and reduce his costs/GH with Gen 2, but Cointerra almost certainly has a healthy margin themselves. Hardware is going to get very cheap.
Sorry if this is difficult to read, I've just woken up and I'm fairly groggy.
You can only lose so SELL SELL SELL.
I for one hope AM temporarily dips below 1.2 and then goes up again. So you have an opportunity to sell your shorts and then you don't have any reason to spread FUD here anymore.