Quote from: Astargath on March 05, 2018, 10:44:41 AM

Quote from: alia on March 05, 2018, 09:48:51 AM

Quote from: Astargath on March 05, 2018, 09:19:46 AM

Quote from: Quickseller on March 05, 2018, 07:36:30 AM

Quote from: alia on March 05, 2018, 07:06:51 AM

Quote from: Quickseller on March 05, 2018, 06:47:13 AM

Quote from: alia on March 05, 2018, 06:40:06 AM

people pointed out the obvious (a script can never be long-term profitable,

It cannot be reasonably concluded that any betting strategy, including those done with a script can be reliably profitable in the short term

Quote from: alia on March 05, 2018, 06:40:06 AM

a fact I had stated many times).

I would dispute this.

If I'm not mistaken, it was one of my very first replies where I stated it to be EV-

"one of" being the key words in that statement...

Title of the thread '' proving my gambling script WORKS''
First reply of aria: it doesn't work it's EV-
A few replies later: I will prove everyone wrong
And so on and so on, quite contradictory statements throughout the whole thread.

EV-, in the long run, holy shit. It is always profitable at the beginning.

There is no such thing as expected positive value in the beginning that turns into an expected negative value in the long term, it's either positive or negative all the way otherwise how does the script even know it's the beginning? No matter how many millions of bets you have done the next bet is literally like the first one, you don't have more or less chances of anything, it's the same.

No, not how it works. For example, say you're tossing a coin and counting the number of heads and tails appear.

At the beginning, you may get something like 2 Heads and 3 Tails. It may go to 4 Heads and 8 Tails, maybe even 10 Heads and 20 Tails. Does this mean that tails will always be more than heads? No. The more flips you do, the more likely it is that the numbers will regress to the mean (50/50). You may start with 10 H and 20 T and end up with 4050 H and 4100 T. With infinite flips, you will hit a 50/50 ratio every time.

In the same way, the more bets you make, the more likely you are to lose money. With a fixed BR, the beginning can be profitable, but given infinite time and infinite money, you will lose all of it. That's just how it works.