Quote from: alia on March 05, 2018, 02:07:10 PM

Quote from: Astargath on March 05, 2018, 02:01:42 PM

Quote from: alia on March 05, 2018, 01:57:01 PM

Quote from: o_e_l_e_o on March 05, 2018, 01:45:55 PM

Quote from: alia on March 05, 2018, 11:42:34 AM

At the beginning, you may get something like 2 Heads and 3 Tails. It may go to 4 Heads and 8 Tails, maybe even 10 Heads and 20 Tails. Does this mean that tails will always be more than heads? No. The more flips you do, the more likely it is that the numbers will regress to the mean (50/50). You may start with 10 H and 20 T and end up with 4050 H and 4100 T. With infinite flips, you will hit a 50/50 ratio every time.

This is correct¹, but inapplicable to your script (or any other gambling method, for that matter).

In an infinite sequence of fair coins flips, the proportion of heads or tails will tend towards 50% with a probability of 1. However, there is absolutely nothing stopping the first 10 flips being all heads or all tails, even if an infinitie number of flips would be 50/50. Taking a gambling script, there is absolutely nothing stopping the first 10 runs being all wins or all loses.

1. Technically, when talking about infinite sets, having a probability of 1 is the not the same as saying something will surely happen. Instead, we use the term almost surely. Although interesting, irrelevant to this discussion.

Imagine it this way. There are nine green balls, and one red ball in a bag. Every time you pick a green ball, you win a dollar. Every time you pick a red ball, you lose ten dollars. At the beginning of the game, there is a pretty good likelihood that you will make a couple dollars, maybe 3-4 (or 5-6 if you're ballsy). But, if you play for too long, you are guaranteed to go bankrupt. In the long run, you will have a balance of negative infinity dollars. Does it make more sense now?

No it doesn't because it doesn't matter. You always have a 90% and a 10% chance of getting a green or a red ball respectively no matter if it's the beginning or not. What if I play 10 bets and they are all wins and I stop playing for 1 day and comeback, is that a new beginning now? Can I use the method again? What determines the ''beginning''?

Ah, there's a point I can't refute. You are totally right. But in my empirical evidence, if I gamble a bit with customer deposits and stop at 20-30-40% profit, it works out well. I don't really know why, but hey, it works! Maybe I just got lucky. Good thing I stopped using/selling the script eh

Well I give you props for admitting it and you probably should be locking this thread, it's getting repetitive.