Quote from: mhps on September 17, 2013, 12:58:59 PM

Quote from: Trillium on September 17, 2013, 12:31:25 PM

Quote from: mhps on September 17, 2013, 09:58:28 AM

Quote from: muto on September 17, 2013, 09:28:38 AM

I have a total of about 7 CPD (HP11) crunching. Since about a month ago I'm experiencing much, much lower blockrate. Currently it's about one block per 2-3 days. Wondering who finds all those blocks?

Also I noticed (since day 0) that my machines often find a few blocks in a row (over 1-3 days) and then find nothing for days/weeks. I even had 3 blocks within a few hours a few times. Can anybody confirm, that it is more likely to find a block when a block has been found in the past hours? I can't believe this is pure luck.

Yes. They come in groups. It's not totally random. There are hidden parameters that are not well understood. In the hidden parameter space there is tide of "luck". I can only guess the parameters are related to network speed, performance of the whole network, and the condition of your peers who are network neighbors at the moment.

Sorry, I can't agree with this, and I have found several thousand XPM in total now. I think you are falling into the trap of seeing patterns where there really are none: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia

Similarly a gambler remembers theirs successes more than their failures (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias), especially when they also perceive a 'lucky streak' or 'a round of wins': http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hot-hand_fallacy

I suspect if you plot your found block frequency against time and perform rigorous statistical testing you will see there is not really the phenomenon you describe.

What you say is that statistics can show people see non-existing patterns. But the logic doesn't go the other way round. There are plenty of examples that simple statistics is blind on existing patterns, especially if the hidden process is cyclic. Averaging too long you will claim there is no seasonal change on Earth.

I don't knoe either way. Only controlled detailed tests on the main net can help. Maybe someone can fund a PhD student to try to crack it. Heck someone may already have. We know a grad student has produced a GPU miner prototype for less than 100BTC Wink

Yes if you do statistics wrong it can mislead you. If you do it right it can enlighten you. The same can be said for most things.