Quote from: ThickAsThieves on September 19, 2013, 08:59:58 PM

Quote from: lophie on September 19, 2013, 08:54:44 PM

Quote from: candoo on September 19, 2013, 08:36:47 PM

Quote from: Aedius on September 19, 2013, 08:33:36 PM

Last 30 hour hashrate reading is at 58.23 and the 20 hour is at 73.90. Perhaps some new hardware is being deployed?

Why do we keep repeating this... Its called variance

it is because the swings are too sharp against variance. That is why most of us here are speculating about events happening in the farm.

Candoo is right, variance really can be this "sharp".

huge swings are possible once you are less then 10% of the total pool 1 block in 1 day is not that uncalled for.

6 blocks in 1 hour is the 'norm' for the entire pool or about 144 blocks a day. If you are 10 percent of the pool 14 blocks is common place or your norm.

But here is a simple way of doing your odds. if you are at 10% of the network. vs 5% of the network

1 miss is .90 .95
2 miss is .81 .902
3 = .729 .857
4 = .656 .814
5= .5905 .773
6 = .5314 so at 10% you are about 47/100 to do 1 block in the first hour .735 at 5% your are about 25 -75 to do 1 block in the first hour
7 = .4783 .698
8 = .4304 .663
9 = .3874 .630
10 = .3486 .598
11 = .3138 .568
12 = .284 at 10% your are about 72/100 to do 1 block by 2 hours .540 at 5% your are about 46 /100 to do 1 block by 2 hours
13 = .254 .513
14 = .2287 .487
15 = .2058 .463
16 = .185 .439
17 = .1667 .417
18 = .1501 at 10 % you are about 85 /100 to do 1 block by 3 hours .396 at 5% you are about 60/100 to do 1 block by 3 hours

the point is at 3 hours 10 % of the network vs 5 % of the network allows a big difference for more then 2x as some would think.