Quote from: Lytse on September 21, 2013, 06:42:38 PM

Quote from: Progressive on September 21, 2013, 06:27:53 PM

Quote from: Lytse on September 21, 2013, 06:09:57 PM

Can someone explain why the JD losses affect the DMS.mining value instead of DMS.selling?
(Or is there another reason for the DMS.mining drop that I am missing?)

DMS.MINING was way overvalued, that's the reason for the drop.

I don't know the right ~~value~~ price for DMS.mining. A right ~~value~~ price could be 0.002 BTC per share based on the block eruptor blade pricing at BTC guild. (not available for international shipment)

The right price of MINING does not depend on what the competing hashing-related stuff is doing. The only thing that should influence pricing for DMS.MINING is the expected dividend-payments (and the speed with which they come). And this in turn depends on the difficulty evolution.

Simple mathematics tells us that if the difficulty increases by the same relative amount every time, the total amount of dividend paid out by MINING over its entire lifetime is:
14 * X / D
where X is the daily dividends right now and D the fractional difficulty increase per adjustment (so 0.2 for 20%). To get the correct result, this should be computed at the start of a difficulty cycle (or deduct the amount of dividends paid since the last adjustment from the computed result). Additionally, the block-reward halving is not included in the computation, but this is far enough away that dividends have become negligible by then (unless difficulty stops growing soon).

As an example, if you expect a 25% increase per adjustment, MINING will pay a total of 1.25 mBTC, counted from the start of the current cycle, so 6 days ago. Deducting the dividend paid over those days, you get 1.12 mBTC left.

So if you assume that the difficulty goes up by 25% per adjustment, you should not pay more than 1.12 mBTC for MINING right now. Of course, you'll want to pay less than that, because investing to break even after an infintely long series is not a good investment at all.