Quote from: lo1 on September 23, 2013, 01:55:35 PM

Quote from: AndrewWilliams on September 23, 2013, 01:03:52 AM

My theory is, once the blood starts flowing in the streets come January or February, and the common miner comes to the realization they will not hit ROI, they will stop buying new hardware. Then, and only then would be the appropriate time to buy. Once the "overeager" money is wiped out.

Thoughts?

Agreed. I cannot think of the current situation in words different than a bubble. However, what happens is that people waiting for asic *will* put them to work. So considering the current level of demand, the difficulty will continue to jump for a while.

I have improved my estimation using the current next difficulty estimate (78% increase, not 100%). The price to reasonably pay for a miner is in mBTC. This price involves one month delivery security (yes - optimistic) and one month insurance against huge difficulty increase

Even if those people put their ASIC's to work (order coming in November - January), the newest ASICS coming out in March and June will be so much more ahead of their predecessors, that the "overeager money" that is buying now, will not be able to mine profitably anymore.
1. Orders shipping from now to December will be obsolete (not producing income) in about 6 months time. Most people agree about this point.
2. Those people will not have hit ROI given every projection given. They in turn, will not have the money to purchase for "Round 2," come March-June, and will drop out of the ASIC arms race

My whole point, to summarize, is all participants buying ASICS now will not hit ROI, and because of that, will drop out of any future buys due to lack of funds/lack of interest due to unprofitably.