Quote from: sturle on September 24, 2013, 07:28:46 PM

Quote from: Rampion on September 24, 2013, 03:07:17 PM

- Gox handled a very big volume BEFORE the Dwolla and Coinlab issues, and they handled that volume FINE

This is not true. The intenational wire delays started one or two weeks before the Dwolla problems. After the discontinuation of all other possible withdrawal methods in just two months.

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- Stating that Gox is "overwhelming" the biggest bank is Japan is laughable at best. That's BS.

At least it is the most plausible explanation so far, and the only I can think of which explains their problems from the beginning of June. The number of customers and trade volume grew tremendously during this time. Last number I heard was 600k verified customers. In the beginning of this year there were much less than 100k.

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- Gox needed to increase their operational costs during the bubble, precisely to be able to handle the customers and volume growth. We do not know how rationally that growth was managed.

We know that. More staff on AML verification and support. I think they are 14 now.

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- Gox invested in new servers, trading engine, etc. shortly before the Dwolla and Coinlab issues

A new server cost thousands at most. Not millions. Mark already run a large business renting out servers (Tibanne).

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- Being scrutinized by US regulators is quite a stress, which certainly leads to more expenses: expensive lawyers, licenses, etc. We can safely assume they are spending a lot to pull their shit together.

Still doesn't explain the problems starting in the beginning of June. The licence they applied for costs 200k USD. The already spoke to the US regulators (the reason for discontinuation of redeemable codes, one of the popular withdrawal methods), and were preparing for further licensing when DHS struck out of the blue. We are not talking millions here either.

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- Gox is offering an "emergency" withdrawal option that goes with a 5% fee. Surprise! There is no "overwhelming" if you choose that option.

Note that the 5% is a bank fee.

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Finally, the hard cold fact is Gox is having tremendous issues with withdrawals (delays and more delays), and as per Occam's Razor, the easiest answer is they have liquidity problems.

Yes, and easy conclusions are often wrong. The math and timing just don't add up. Bank problems is a much more plausible explanation.

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Saying stupid things like "the old financial system is having problems to follow the thriving BTC economy" and such is an insult to the intelligence of their customers. They probably offer the "5% emergency withdrawal" so they can make as much money as possible with such a leonine fee, to eventually cover the holes left by the US DHS and Coinlab.

So you think MtGox is 5% in minus, and the bank doesn't take any fee at all? No, this does not sound anything near a plausible explanation to me. Why is the 5% option very limited then, and not offered by default to everyone? And why only for international wire? A nice collection of speculations, but few are plausible and they certainly don't fit your conclusion. You have to start looking earlier than the Dwolla seizures. It is very obvious they were limited by their bank since June 5th, at least.

2+2 = 4

Gox is short of $10M and they are heavily delaying withdrawals. They make up stupid excuses such as "the old financial system cannot follow the thriving BTC economy" and "our huge volume is overwhelming the biggest bank is Japan". Still, there's no problem with the money coming in, only with the money going out.

At the same time, Bitstamp is actually handling a higher volume, and processing withdrawals quickly and smoothly.

The most plausible scenario is simply that Gox is having liquidity problems.

Some of you repeat that Gox made aprox. $8M in trading fees since April this year, like that means $10M is nothing for them. That's absurd. The fact is their income before expenses during the period of higher usd volume EVER is significantly smaller that the hole created by Coinlab and DHS. $10M is not precisely peanuts for Gox, saying the contrary is ludicrous. Note that the two days of all time high volume happened precisely in August. If you have any experience managing a business you know this kind of hole means - at best - a huge headache for Gox.

I for one hope their financials were managed very good in the past, and thus the company is extremely liquid and healthy despite the $10M hole, it's just that being so opaque and outright lying doesn't help confidence at all. In their situation (slow but steady "bank run", media writing about possible insolvency), a healthy company would just disclose its balances to show the world (meaning their customers) how healthy and strong they are. But no, their CEO makes up vague excuses on IRC...