Quote from: RationalSpeculator on September 25, 2013, 01:21:50 AM

Quote from: spartanmorning on September 24, 2013, 10:29:21 PM

... the simplest explanation for this is that he knows how/what nakowa is doing and why...again, just sayin' here...why is it so hard to be somewhat conservative and pull your money from the site? Why are people so driven to ignore red flags? yes, it could be legit, or a shadow business operating with a giant conflict of interest and security hole, is indeed untrustworthy. Why risk it? for what gains?

Expected potential returns since inception have been on average 200% per year (avg turnover vs avg house bankroll), meaning you will triple your amount of btc in 1 year if dooglus is legit. If not you will lose it all.

What is the chance that dooglus is a fraud? I think chances are low, I would say 10%. Let's take 20% to be certain not to underestimate.

Ofcourse there are other risks too, he might get robbed, there might be a flaw, there might be gov attack etc. Let's say there is 50% chance it fails for whatever reason.

So 50% to triple your money, 50% to lose it all.

That's a good bet to take. Not with all your capital as chances are considerable it will fail, but some capital as chances are higher you will make a profit. For such odds Kelly advises to invest 25% of the capital you are willing to risk.

You don't need him to just not be a fraud. You need him to not have any flaws or holes that cannot be exploited. You need everyone who has access to the site to not be a fraud. There is a lot to gamble about here.