Quote from: mechs on September 25, 2013, 03:17:26 AM

Quote from: Peter R on September 25, 2013, 03:15:18 AM

Quote from: infested999 on September 25, 2013, 03:04:28 AM

Quote from: Peter R on September 25, 2013, 03:00:41 AM

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That doesn't make any sense, why would he wait 2 rolls for everything?

It doesn't make sense to me either. I think I either made a mistake, or there are errors in the file I downloaded from dooglus.

If you look at Nakowa's actual bet data, he makes a bunch of small bets mixed in with his large bets. If you take his actual data, but just shift one colum so that he wages what he actually wagered 2 rolls earlier, then most the losses line up with the small bets and most of the profits line up with the large bets. This should be statistically impossible. So either I made a mistake, there is an error in the file, or the seed was known by Nakowa and he left a clue for us to find.

Nothing impossible, but how improbable is it? 5%, 1%, 0.001%? There is a certain point of improbabiltiy that the chance of a server seed compromise would be more than dumb luck but we need to see the stats to prove it.

I think someone else needs to check the nakowa2.txt file before we take this further. If that graph I posted is correct, the odds would be astronomically small (as in it couldn't have happened in a fair game).