3. Now, if all you do is calculate what he WOULD have won had the dice result been shifted by 2, then I calculate +420,784 BTC!
4. If you shift it by 1, I calculate -427,822 BTC!
If what I said in point 3 and 4 are correct, then you wouldn't find this fishy? Almost like he was purposely leaving a trial?
I can very confidently say that both 3 and 4 are wrong. Somewhere you messed up. Note how 3 and 4 are VERY similar sizes but opposite sign? Note also that he was nealy always betting high. So most of the time shifting a win would stay a win. The only way you'd get that result for real was if he exactly alternated big/small bets and the RNG generated in high/low alternating sequence as well. And if he did that, shifting 2 would be roughly same results as he actually got.
Your program is broken.
Thanks. Yeah, I am probably missing something--I have certainly made mistakes in the past. Thing is, I was convinced my Mathematica code must of had a mistake so I imported the huge file into Excel and got the same result. I couldn't find the problem after searching for a long time, so I thought I'd throw it out for discussion.
But have you actually looked at the data from dooglus's nakowa2.txt file? There are always sequences of small bets mixed with his large bets. It seems like shifting 2 makes a lot more of the wins hit the big bets, while shifting by one makes a lot more of the wins hit the small bets. It's weird. I am going crazy trying to see how I could be messing up something that should be simple....