3. Now, if all you do is calculate what he WOULD have won had the dice result been shifted by 2, then I calculate +420,784 BTC!
He has said before that "the most common sequence of wins and losses is WLWLWL" or words to that effect.
If he bets small, waiting for a win followed by a loss, and then bets big, expecting a win next, he'll be right about half the time.
If you shift his big bets back two steps then he'll be right every time (since the two bets before the big one were W and L) - the big bet will land on the first observed W rather than the third hoped-for W.
Surely that explains your observed result doesn't it? Or were you shifting in the opposite direction?
Nice work dooglus! That explains everything. I checked, and yes, the shifting is in the right direction.
So, this work exposes part of Nakowa's strategy, but in no way suggests that he has access to the server seed. The outcome in my graphs was extremely improbable due to "randomness" because it wasn't randomness, it was the result of him weighting his bets based on the outcome of his previous rolls.
I should point out that Oleander suggested this a few pages back, so cudos to him too.
Which means his entire play is a gamblers fallacy. Correct?