If only handful of well connected nodes with high up-time were to open channels with each other, both your scenarios won't happen.
A well connected node is another word for hub and spoke...
Also, why don't you explain a topology that could exist in LN that would not result in LN payments failing due to LN peer node downtime? I don't think there is one.
I did
If only handful of well connected nodes with high up-time were to open channels with each other, both your scenarios won't happen.
Some nodes would be well connected, but not in a hub & spoke fashion.
This is not hypothetical, Lightning network is currently running and already beginning to resemble my description.