Quote from: Rampion on September 30, 2013, 05:38:11 AM

I can only assume the reason for this is the "invest/divest" day traders, including Dooglus (who divested when the house was up 3k), on average got lucky and screwed the ones like me who didn't divest. I'd say the "invest/divest daytraders" were gambling against those that did not divest, and the former won big time with a simple strategy: divest when you are up, invest again when the house is down.

I guess that's the case.

On first view it seems that 'day trading' nakowa has a zero expectation. But if he keeps going up and down like today then "divest at +1000, invest at -1000" is a profitable strategy.

You lose when you divest at +1000 and the profits go to +5000 and never come back. Or invest at -1000 and profits drop to -5000 and don't come back. But if they keep going past both your trigger points (-1000 and +1000, say) then you win, and the committed investors lose.

My "day trading" today was accidental. I pulled out as soon as I saw nakowa was playing again. Luckily for me he was down at the time. I've not reinvested.

He asked to withdraw his winnings, but I don't have the cold wallet with me. He's agreed to wait around 24h until I'm home again to withdraw. I don't know if that means he won't play until after that or not. There's no point asking him, because there's no correlation between what he says and what he does.