Ninjastic
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Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
infofront
on 19/03/2018, 18:24:29 UTC
Quote from: cAPSLOCK on March 19, 2018, 05:55:37 PM
Quote from: infofront on March 19, 2018, 05:47:17 PM
Quote from: alaskabm on March 19, 2018, 12:11:16 PM
Quote from: alaskabm on March 16, 2018, 09:47:24 AM
Next week the G20 is coming up and they will also talk about crypto. As stated in the public document of the G20(: https://back-g20.argentina.gob.ar/sites/default/files/media/finance_ministerial_highlights.pdf) they understand that crypto has the potential to promote financial inclusion but at the same time they will try to analyse implications to financial stability, tax evasion and financing illegal activities. These statements are nothing new and very similar to what was said previously at the US senate hearings.

Could this have implications on Monero?


The other day I asked about the impact that the G20 might have on Monero and didn't get much attention. I guess that the line of thought is that no one really cares about what the G20 has to say about BTC or XMR since they can't stop us from having and using XMR.

What scared me though is that BTC (XMR followed) went on a run on the news that there won't be any special regulations coming up soon. This is strong evidence that govs and central banks have a very strong impact on crypto and can do whatever they want(weren't BTC and XMR born to be out of this system?). The fact that XMR price is so dependent on regulations is scary and this is a fact shown by the price movements following the news. Having no tight regulations is of course positive but what will happen when a crackdown arrives?. BTC and XMR just showed that they are super dependent on what govs and central banks say.

In the hypothetical scenario of upcoming regulations for privacy coins (bans on exchanges for example) XMR will be strongly affected as shown by positive response to G20 news.

I thought that XMR was way more resilient to regulations. Unfortunately correlation works both ways, up and down

Monero is flying under the radar, and riding on the goodwill towards bitcoin. The regulators are years behind and don't even understand bitcoin yet. By the time the full impact of bitcoin on the economy is known, regulatory regimes are set up, etc. it will be too late to stop Monero. We'll have decentralized exchanges and atomic swaps.

I imagine you and I are similar cryptosophically.  Bitcoin maximilists at heart who see Monero as either being what bitcoin meant to be or being a perfect compliment blockchain.

I agree with your above analysis.  The question I keep asking is what does Monero's survival look like in the light of a maturing layer 2?  Does it:

-Hold it's niche as a pure 100% privacy blockchain where everything down to the settlement level is obscured and therefore it survives

-Find a way to merge with Bitcoin or in some other way survives?

-Is it made obsolete by functionality that eventually comes to BTC?  And how long 'till this time?

Yeah, that sounds about right in terms of my views too.

As far as the future is concerned, I think your first scenario sounds most likely to me. Any bitcoin privacy solutions that come about will most likely either be less private than Monero, or will end up creating tainted bitcoins, and therefore destroying fungibility. I imagine Monero will continue gaining ground in the grey market/black market/tax evasion areas until a bitcoin privacy solution is implemented. Monero's growth may slow down or stall at that point, but I can't see it dying off. Worst case would be Monero shrinks into being a niche for paranoid nerds and old school cypherpunks or something.
What do you think?