Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
also, masterluc says...blah blah
Why do people still listen to those who made crazy predictions in the past and were all wrong?
None of them predicted the pull back from 20K to 7-8K did they?
Masterluc, Cliff High, Tone Vays, McAfee.
They believe in "long-term", not in short-term like you.
My long term prediction I made August 2017 simply based on doubling each year:
2018 2000
2019 4000
2020 8000
2021 16000
2022 32000
2023 64000
2024 128000
2025 256000
I have nothing against Masterluc, Cliff High, Tone Vays, McAfee saying it will moon sometime in several years 5-10 or whatever (most of us here do otherwise we wouldn't invest our money and time) but a lot of their technical babble in the mean time has been proven wrong hence my comment.
I merited your earlier post, mostly because I appreciate an anti-sorcerer comment now and then, because sometimes it seems that guys are getting into too much sorcerer reliance.. and sometimes, want to be viewed as sorcerers, too.
Doubling every year is not a bad idea or framework, and if you are starting with $1,000 for 2017, $500 for 2016, and $250 for 2015 - even if you are largely correct, you seem to be selectively and purposefully low-balling, especially when we have seen $20k for 2017... so you either seem to be purposefully skewing down your expectations or you are engaged in a state of unrealism.
We are also NOT going to get linear BTC performance.. so even an average of 2x every years seems to just be a kind of stab in the dark that is not really based on anything except for a kind of dream about how the world should be rather than how it is, especially with a considerable likelihood that bitcoin is in a exponential curve which will not likely be held back by 2x (or linear) expectations.
I believe masterluc predicted 20k down to around 9k before we were at 9k. Id say thats not a bad guess.
I would not assert that there are decent predictions and predictions tools and a large number of the persons who are better at predicting do so with probability assertions rather than certainty.. So, when the outcome of a prediction ends up happening, such prediction is in line with what the predictor had asserted to be most probable. Frequently, there is too much credit given, and even suggestions that the predictor knew something about the future.. and they don't... they are just assigning probabilities.
Remember Vinny Lingham was correct on a few of his predictions, and many people (including himself, seemingly) were beginning to assign him sorcerer status, and then in March 2017, he was all over the media preaching BTC doom and gloom in the sub $1k price territories and even seeming to strongly suggest that peeps sell their bitcoins, don't buy bitcoins (and even perhaps short bitcoin) at those prices. Some folks got reckt to the extent they overly relied on "designated" sorcerer Vinny in those days.
A Couple of days ago, I posted a link to one of his doom and gloom prognostications from March 17, 2017. See below:
I was listening to the Adam Meister show today on the World Crypto network, and he referred back to his show from one year ago, on March 17, 2017, in which Vinny Lingham came onto his show, unannounced and predicted that bitcoin was going to then hardfork and go down to below $500 or some other such nonsense. I think that Vinny lost quite a bit of credibility from the strength of his conviction on that date, but the strength of his conviction did cause several bitcoin HODLers to sell and to fail to buy more bitcoin during what ended up being the 2017 low price of bitcoin at about $890-ish.
2 hour YouTube presentation of Adam Meister show from March 17, 2017 - with surprise guest Vinny Lingham who predicted BTC prices were going to crash to below $500 after hardfork
Even though it is a 2 hour video, it has a certain importance in bitcoin history, and shows that credible folks can make strong predictions and stir up disagreement that end up being wrong.
2 hour YouTube presentation of Adam Meister show from March 17, 2017 - with surprise guest Vinny Lingham who predicted BTC prices were going to crash to below $500 after hardfork
Even though it is a 2 hour video, it has a certain importance in bitcoin history, and shows that credible folks can make strong predictions and stir up disagreement that end up being wrong.