Quote from: steve_rogers on March 19, 2018, 11:34:23 PM

I have a theory according to which the currency exchange rate, in addition to the speculative component is on the necessary factors to the world community, elites and businessmen (whales), they release a huge flow of funds where like on the island there are plenty of altcoins and bitcoins. Let's try find out what caused the crazy growth of cryptocurrency during the last year's .

The first whale is actually what for what was created bitcoin - fast, convenient and safe implementation of the transactions, the replacement of traditional banking. Previously I've submitted an article about little Chinese city in Moscow, and how they use bitcoin to avoid customs control and taxes. Involving any currency in large cash flows is the reason for it´s pumping , increasing of the capitalization. There you can also add the sale of all the iron from Bitmain for bitcoin, and in general, there are a lot of places in China where bitcoin is a very simple and convenient financial tool. What are the negative aspects of this "whale", what can lead to its sudden death? Apparently, the pressure the United States, a country that now, can not only resist China's actions, but also actively oppose them, if within the summit of G20 or any others, the US manages to push through "sanctions against bitcoin," and it will be prohibited any kind of use, exchanging. Then it will completely kill its ability to quickly and easily move money from point "a" to point "b", respectively, we will expect a strong fall in rates, down to self-cost, or even lower.

The second whale is the speculative effect of insane volatility and pump, for reasons mentioned above, people who bought bitcoins for $ 20,000 are already heroes of memes and stories (like a man who bough pizza for 20k bitcoins). In fact, when bitcoin falls, there are much less people wanted to buy it, dump is the object of interest only among professional traders who can play on dumps, but not even so long as cryptocurrency will not reach the bottom and it's stabilization.

The third whale is the most stable and reliable. Crypto-currencies are a simple, convenient and profitable way to keep money safe, even if the first two whales die crypto-currencies will continue to exist thanks for drug traffickers, drug dealers, corrupted bureaucrats, law enforcement officers and businessmen. Nowhere labeled money has grown many times, that's why the work of the FBI has become much more boring, instead of photo of pallets of cash, lambos and mansions, the FBI reports on seized crypto-currencies. Then they will be auctioned off. In the Russian Federation with its corrupted militarists, technical progress has not reached them yet, but I think more and more of these citizens make the appropriate conclusions and instead of pallets of cash,they will keep everything in the cryptocurrency, because it is so easy to escape, go to any place in the world, and to hide from everyone. This category of citizens do not give a f*ck about the increasing rate, ideally the cryptocarrencies were stable and got rid of the frenzied volatility, and that it could easily be cashed anywhere in the world, or at least among its owners with a higher percentage fee. It is almost impossible to win this battle, if bitcoin has been learned how to be tracked already with the help of special software, took all the stock exchanges under control, then decentralized exchanges, special exchanges, special networks will be created, if the rounds for miners start and the transactions cease to be processed, but what will be the course of the bitcoin in this case, large question.
So what do you think?

The original of my post is here

Wow, this is a very interesting write up that you did here. It seems you have done quite a research for you to come up on a theory like this. Summing up how the market behavior that causes the price volatility is very interesting topic. If this would be a cycle then this would be the trend that we might possible have in the upcoming years. Honestly I cant tell if having a cycle like this is good for the crypto market.