Quote from: chriswen on September 30, 2013, 08:25:57 PM

Quote from: nicolaennio on September 30, 2013, 07:58:24 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on September 30, 2013, 04:50:46 PM

Quote from: ottodv on September 30, 2013, 04:23:37 PM

Quote from: oda.krell on September 30, 2013, 03:16:45 PM

More importantly however, whatever you think the reason for this is, please look at nakowa's yesterday winning charts and tell me that there is no "exploitable" pattern to it:

That's all easy with hindsight. The hard part is being sure of the exploitable pattern of Nakowa's next run.

Similarly, I've noticed BTC trading in the 130-145 range over the last weeks. What's stopping you from selling at say 142 and buying back at 135 repeatedly? Would have been a winning strategy over the last weeks/months. What could possibly go wrong...

I'm addressing that point in my post: I said, at around bet 6000, some people decided it's a "pattern" and traded accordingly.

You also noted that I said, several times in fact, that I'm aware that in the long run, investment "trading" should be -EV, right?

But that wasn't my argument anyway: in the short run, it can be +EV. So a loss like the one we suffer now isn't distributed evenly over investors. So the losing investors will be unhappy. So the site will lose investors, which is bad for everyone.

That, in a nutshell, is my argument why invest-trading hurts j-d. And the complementary argument is: there's no good reason to *want* invest-trading: j-d already has a gambling mechanism. Investments should be just that: investments.

The discussion about investing/divesting is getting long and I must tell that I am convinced that people in the chat were actually cheating people by asking them to divest when Nakowa was -4K for at least two reasons. First, if you have the "secret" strategy you are not going to tell anyone, secondly as everyone agrees divesting is another fallacy.

Now also the forum is getting plenty of this and it looks to me an army of trolls trying to cheat other people with "secret" tricks.

Maybe I should stay silent and stay invested, but this is getting too much spam in my opinion.

Divesting is not a fallacy. It is a risk management strategy. You minimize losses but you may miss out on gains.

Have you ever heard the term take profit in investing? This is what you're doing with the divesting strategy.

You take profits that you are content with. You might miss out on further profits. But if the profit goes down, you'll have limited your losses.

I agree on this (divesting to secure profits is not gambling), in fact I should have protected the profits I had when I went to sleep yesterday (I was up 5%), but greed and faith in both math and Nak's compulsive gambling behavior made me keep my investment there... And I woke up with a 12% loss.

This does not change the fact that trying to "ride the waves" or "predict the patterns" by investing/divesting multiple times while Nak is playing is just another form of gambler's fallacy. There are no predictable waves, no patterns, just random events. When the site is +3k coins, the chance of it going to -3k or 6k is exactly the same.