Quote from: nicolaennio on October 01, 2013, 06:27:46 AM

Quote from: GOB on October 01, 2013, 03:03:00 AM

Quote from: eltopo on September 30, 2013, 10:34:20 AM

Quote from: wachtwoord on September 30, 2013, 09:32:08 AM

Quote from: manoamano on September 30, 2013, 09:25:39 AM

Quote from: pascal257 on September 30, 2013, 09:23:17 AM

Given that the probabilities don't change, it wouldn't make sense to invest/divest on winning/losing streaks. That's investors fallacy.

Unless for example the hash distribution is not random, or the server seed is not safe.

As pointed out before, when nakowa is betting, there is a lot of moves, and profit get easily + 10 k or - 6k within hours.
At the end of the day, it always end up with a large negative profit.

Some people says that nakowa got 3 or 4 times the website bankroll and can take a lot of losses ...
So it makes sense to divest when he is loosing a lot, and invest at the end of the period, or when he got lucky.

As I said, you can make up to 30 % profit daily with that, with only investing and divesting once (at the correct time).

No you cannot, you are trying to time the market: a losing proposition. Staying invested throughout is the most profitable strategy. If you want to avoid a lot of variance you can divest. This is why Dooglus divested!

This.

There is no regression to the mean. If we're at +5000, we can go to +10000 as likely as to 0. If someone wants to time the market, do it. You can win or you can lose, but math is not on your side.

For those whining around everytime the profit is down, that's simply because you can't stand the variance. Don't call out for further reglementations, just divest partly. I have done this yesterday myself, I divested about 60% before going to sleep, because I don't want to wake up with a 20% loss.

Regarding day-trading, I have been of the opinion that it is largely irrelevant from the position of the day-trader: you have no knowledge of the next rolls, so if you believe you know when wins or losses are coming, you are falling for the same good'ole gambler's fallacy. Additionally, from the perspective of passive investors, ex-ante it's irrelevant because daytraders could just as easily divest before a huge drop as they could before a huge gain.

Also, don't forget that you're likely to only be hearing from those day traders that have done well, but not from those that do poorly. I'll break the silence of the failed daytraders right here: I tried it once and divested before a HUGE nakowa 7000btc runup, and then invested and immediately took an even bigger drop. F*ck that. So it's not all sunshine and happiness in daytrade land.

HOWEVER!!!

Watching yesterday's ridiculous action and reading the comment above from eltopo (There is no regression to the mean. If we're at +5000, we can go to +10000 as likely as to 0.) have made me realize something: while that statement is true, there is a way you can successfully daytrade because while you do not know future rolls, there is some publicly available info about the future. Bear with me:

IF:

A) You know nokawa follows a random walk, up and down, betting close to max bet, until he loses his entire last deposit OR he makes X BTC (for example, yesterday it was 2k + making up for his previous losses, so 5k)
B) You can see what his balance is (people seem to be able to do this, not sure how)
C) You can see when he is depositing again
D) All other betting going on is relatively so small that we can safely ignore it.

THEN:

A strategy where you divest when he is near losing his last deposit and invest when he is near reaching his goal, then you can make the decision to daytrade EV+ with respect to passive investing. This is because when he is near losing his entire deposit, you only stand to gain very little from him losing it all, and a lot to gain if he doesn't; similarly, when he is near his goal, you stand to lose little if he reaches his goal as compared to how much you stand to gain if he dips back down toward losing his latest deposit. Finally, because (somehow) people know how much his balance is and they see when he has incoming deposits, even if you divest and he loses another, say, 500BTC and loses his deposit, there will be a break while he reloads, so you can invest again and start a new "session".

The point is, like dooglus said, the downside to daytrading is that you might miss a huge 30k slide by nakowa at any point. But the problem with this is that you WON'T miss it (if you're paying attention and day trading), because you'll see nakowa lose his whole balance and then see the new deposit coming.

Does this make sense? So, this would push me toward being anti-daytrading being permitted, but so far I haven't heard any effective methods for preventing it given that you can open unlimited accounts.

It does not make sense. I cannot see why everyone here would blame a martingale 1,2,4,8, etc but accept this day-trading discussion. Are you trolls or what?

Trolling? What part of what I wrote makes you think I'm trolling? I was just thinking out loud, playing devils advocate on the daytrading thing (I made it clear at the beginning of my post). And what does, "I cannot see why everyone here would blame a martingale 1,2,4,8" mean?