Quote from: nicolaennio on October 01, 2013, 06:20:27 PM

Quote from: GOB on October 01, 2013, 04:12:46 PM

Can we all agree that if the server seeds are compromised or (hypothetically) Dooglus is double-timing the investors (I'm not suggesting this is the case), that no amount of edge or limited max profit will save us??? Why does this keep getting brought up?

I disagree. Suppose that the max bet was, for example, 0.00001B and that an hacker get into the server and cheat the game by "winning", say, 100BTC generating different accounts. This would mean winning 10^8 times the max bet and the profit would deviate from the expected mean so much (probability being like one over millions) that no one would believe in the chance and we could safely believe the server has been compromised. Thus the website could automatically stop accepting bets or something like that.

Quote from: GOB on October 01, 2013, 04:12:46 PM

If the server is hacked, then you need to divest, period. But there is no evidence so far that it is hacked or that nakowa knows the server seeds. He simply has a huge bankroll and can take the enormous swings. That isn't to say it's not possible.

You are saying that by yourself, "there is no evidence". The only evidence we could have is statistical and with such an high maxbet we cannot built it.

I get what you're saying. For a given level of profit for the hacker, say 100BTC like you say above, there is a max profit low enough such that if a hacker were to attain that 100BTC, it would be known with, say, 99.99% probability that it was not though luck. I agree! 100% done and done, no discussion.

However, what I am saying is slightly different or can be adjusted to account for what you are saying: A hacker that is willing to scale down their ambition, could always win and make their winning statistically indistinguishable from randomness. As long as they change their effective edge of their play from -1% (or -0.5%, or whatever it's currently at) to a positive %, as an investor, you must divest, no matter how low max profit is. Because while your losses in absolute value are lower, your losses relative to your potential gain (which is greatly diminished at 0.00001btc max profit) are just as large as ever.

Thus: compromised site => divest, regardless of max profit.