Quote from: mechs on October 01, 2013, 08:45:02 PM

Quote from: grau on October 01, 2013, 08:37:32 PM

A wagered amount of 3,773,544 with a house edge of 1% implies expectation of bank profit of 37,735.
JD is 40,000 below expectation. That is 3-4 Nakowas. Rather strange.

Everyone agrees the results are improbable. The question is is it so improbable it more likely their a fault with the RNG or a cheat of some sort.

How lucky one needs to be to beat expectation with 40k?

Lets bet 400 on >50.5 say 10000 times. We only need to win 5100 times, right?

How probable is that?

Mathematica says:
In[82]:= Probability[x > 5100, x \[Distributed] BinomialDistribution[10000, 0.495]]
Out[82]= 0.00130587719594

That is 0.1% probability.

Probability of such win gets much lower than that if you bet smaller amounts or more often than 10000.

Most bets on JD were significantly less than 400 and number of bets is magnitudes higher than 10000.

No way is this within "probable".