How lucky one needs to be to beat expectation with 40k?
Lets bet 400 on >50.5 say 10000 times. We only need to win 5100 times, right?
No, I don't think that is right, for two reasons:
1) if you win 5100 times, you win (5100*400)-(4900*400) = 80k. Not 40k. So you're off by a factor of two there
2) if expectation is to lose 25k, to beat it by 40k you 'only' have to win 15k. That means winning 5018 times (5018*400 - 4982*400 = 14400)
So you 'only' need to win 5018 and lose 4982 to be around 40k better than expectation.
You are right with 1, apologize for the obvious error I made.
As for 2. the expectation is to lose 37k by all folks wagering 3.7 million including nakowa, JD off that by 40k.
I agree that the probability of that is 2.2% WITH bets of size 400 and 10000 bets.
Bets were however mostly much lower and we had magnitudes more bets, so probability should be significantly below than that to be where JD is.