Quote from: cellard on March 22, 2018, 05:04:57 PM

Technical analysis has been wrong a billion times in bitcoin.

It's wrong no more often in Bitcoin than other markets, especially now that we have a more liquid market. The problem is that most people (especially novices and laypeople) assume that TA is predictive. It is not, at least not outside the scope of generalized probability.

A chart setup will always fail a significant amount of the time. Trading successfully is about quickly cutting the losses from those failures while maximizing the gains (letting your winners run, rolling stops up).

Quote from: cellard on March 22, 2018, 05:04:57 PM

All the analysts that are now playing the "death cross" game called a top of $7500 for 2017, then we went to $20000. A bunch of idiots thought that "professional technical analysts" predictions couldn't fail, but that is exactly what they did, so all of these people now want lower prices to get back, in which group I suspect you belong to.

That's probably not true. "Golden crosses" and "death crosses" are long term lagging indicators. Nobody who trades based on them would have called a top at $7,500.

Maybe what you say is true of permabears, but then your bone to pick is with permabears, not TA.

Quote from: chrisrok on March 21, 2018, 11:29:15 PM

the death cross signal or chart analysis in general isn't any predictive factor for future price development.

in the best case, its a self fulfilling prophecy - in the worst case you gonna loose money due to irrational trading behavior.

I don't like to think of it as predictive. It's a lagging observation of cyclical trends. A death cross after long term bullish trending just means that price is no longer recovering during bearish/corrective cycles as before. That can indicate a marked change to the trend. It doesn't necessarily mean doom, but it's one indicator that an uptrend is no longer intact.