Quote from: Vycid on July 03, 2013, 02:38:06 PM

This is a bubble.

Anyone saying otherwise has ulterior motives (they probably still own a lot of stock).

It's clear as day. Look at the parabolic trajectory. Consider the lack of short selling. Have you guys already forgotten Bitcoin in March? People were saying much the same things about Bitcoin then as they are saying about ASICMiner now.

Everyone is quoting the "26% APR" as a validation of ASICMiner's share price. First off, 26% APR is not that great a return for a super-unstable security traded with a super-unstable currency.

But, more importantly, ASICMiner's current dividends are inflated for three reasons.

One: because people will pay more per terahash while the difficulty is low. That's kind of obvious: your potential return is a lot higher per terahash while the difficulty is low, so therefore AM can charge a lot more. That effect is quickly subsiding, as evidenced by AM's prices.

Two: there is no serious competition yet. Beyond the organic competition anticipated from Avalon, BFL, KncMiner etc getting their shit together, at this point the sales volume of miners is large enough for an established mid-size electronics manufacturer to mosey on over here and embarrass AM price-wise.

Three: electricity cost. Believe it or not, the location of AM (Guangdong province, China) is not the cheapest place for electricity. Don't quote this figure, but I believe it comes out to about $0.06/kWh. As competition ramps up, money getting in on a piece of that 26% APR will launch huge farms in places like Washington state or Siberia where the price is $0.01/kWh - and they will do so by licensing the BitFury chip, for example, not by buying expensive AM hardware. AM will have trouble competing.

I've sold all my shares. I'm now buying puts with the sole intention of playing the downside. Just like at $266 with Bitcoin, there will be a hiccup - probably a bad dividend week - and this bubble will pop, and a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money, very very fast.

Great call by Vycid!

On July 3th 2013 when ASICMINER was valued at 4.52 btc per share (when 1 btc was $83, so $375 per share) Vycid predicts a collapse, liquidates all his shares and continues to buy put options. (AM had just seventeen folded in value, coming from only 0.65 btc per share (when 1 btc was $35, so $22 per share) when it first started trading on bitfunder just 4 months earlier on March 4th 2013.

AM reached it's peak valuation only 2 days before his call on July 2nd 2013 at 4.93 btc and started falling month after month to only 0.61 btc per share ( with 1 btc = $152, so $92 per share) as of today October 18th 2013, losing 75% of it's value in only 3 months.

He continued to vocal his contrarian opinion, even though he was scolded quite intensively for it, and helped several investors get out in time.

He made another call recently, too soon to be judged:

Quote from: Vycid on October 02, 2013, 09:14:25 PM

Wow.

That is worse than expected.

I am resuming a very bearish outlook. 1-year PT 0.3 BTC/share.

Friedcat blew his chance and his first-mover advantage. Now he doesn't even have competitive Gen2 positioning.

Retrospectively I'm not surprised, they aren't professional chip designers and the competition largely is.